tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3825735583779219774.post7209942506639519139..comments2023-09-20T03:17:50.113-07:00Comments on Entropic Journal: Rail EfficienciesHanZiBoihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10839784509853685872noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3825735583779219774.post-44863675229873277342008-12-29T02:56:00.000-08:002008-12-29T02:56:00.000-08:00Entropy rules. It is late for rail, as conservatio...Entropy rules. It is late for rail, as conservation as this point will not change the Peak Oil scenario much.<BR/><BR/>Independent studies conclude that Peak Oil production will occur (or has occurred) between 2005 to 2010 (projected year for peak in parentheses), as follows:<BR/><BR/>* Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)<BR/><BR/>* Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of “Oil Watch Monthly” (2008)<BR/><BR/>* Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst (2008)<BR/><BR/>* Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)<BR/><BR/>* T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)<BR/><BR/>* U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)<BR/><BR/>* Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell Geologist (2005)<BR/><BR/>* Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist (2005)<BR/><BR/>* Chris Skrebowski, Editor of “Petroleum Review” (2010)<BR/><BR/>* Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)<BR/><BR/>* Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)<BR/><BR/>Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.<BR/><BR/>Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”<BR/><BR/>"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame." <BR/><BR/>http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Press_Oilreport_22-10-2007.pdf<BR/><BR/>With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems. <BR/><BR/>This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html<BR/><BR/>I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a more sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, University of New Hampshirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00604482549497831495noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3825735583779219774.post-67041329359227123972008-12-26T08:15:00.000-08:002008-12-26T08:15:00.000-08:00The idea that automobile efficiency cannot be grea...The idea that automobile efficiency cannot be greatly improved is incorrect.<BR/>An EV or hybrid when in electric mode uses about 300watt/hours/kilometer, so even after generous allowance is made for inefficiencies in electrical power generation, they use far less energy than current cars.<BR/>Confirmation of this is readily available either on the GM Volt site or in a recent study looking at the impact of EV's on the US grid - minimal for many years.DaveMarthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15874375831375117259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3825735583779219774.post-79863320898271486222008-12-09T10:02:00.000-08:002008-12-09T10:02:00.000-08:00"biggest gain would be from the impact on freight ..."biggest gain would be from the impact on freight transport"<BR/><BR/>Clearly.<BR/><BR/>So sad after three decades we “sweat the small stuff” with the same dead answers.<BR/>Freight is over 80% of consumption… <BR/><BR/><BR/>Solar, mass transit, wind… seriously technology has evolved and so should the answers. Yet everyone looks at the same old answers without properly defining why they failed.<BR/><BR/>If we do not learn from history we are destined to make the same mistakes.EHS Directorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11768405187596006599noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3825735583779219774.post-76709400446188441642008-12-06T14:59:00.000-08:002008-12-06T14:59:00.000-08:00There is a hidden factor here, which is that the F...There is a hidden factor here, which is that the Federal Railway Agency ... though FRA may as stand for Freight Rail Association ... has a passive crash protection safety regime that adds a substantial amount to the weight of Amtrak trains.<BR/><BR/>Add to that the long ago shelving of the electrification of long distance rail lines, first proposed during the 1970's oil price shocks, and there is a substantial energy gain available over Amtrak trains.<BR/><BR/>Of course, the biggest gain would be from the impact on freight transport ... if electrification of freight rail allows freight rail to capture freight markets currently dominated by trucks, the available energy savings are substantial ... in excess of 80% per ton-mile.<BR/><BR/>Now combine that with a program of establishing Rapid Rail paths in those corridors, where all trains would be required to have active crash prevention measures allowing lighter weight European style passenger trains to operate safely, and we could be carrying rail passengers at the semi-HSR speeds of 110mph with much more efficiency than Amtrak trains, and do so on a system designed to allow on-time running.<BR/><BR/>This would leave our bulk freight lines to do what they do well, offer very substantial energy efficiencies per ton-mile on freight transport, and significant energy efficiencies per passenger-mile on passenger rail.BruceMcFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08502035881761277885noreply@blogger.com